BackForwardApplication: 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting

Details
Name 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting
Description Nowcasting, as outlined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), involves detailed forecasting of local weather, utilizing any method to predict conditions from the present to six hours ahead. It provides a comprehensive portrayal of the current weather, leveraging real-time observational data such as surface observations, satellite imagery, lightning, radar data, etc. Nowcasting by extrapolation excels in delivering high-resolution forecasts of weather phenomena for the immediate (2 hour) future. Advancements in data assimilation systems enable Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to outperform nowcast extrapolation thereafter. The use of NWP with data assimilation forms the basis of Very Short Range Forecasting (VSRF) up to 12 hours. To ensure a seamless VSRF, crucial in high-impact weather situations, advanced centers blend both NWP and nowcasting. This integration plays a vital role in issuing timely warnings and aiding decision-makers across various sectors.
Organization World Meteorological Organization
Focal
Point
Aitor Atencia Ruiz de Gopegui
Earth System Application Category 2. Atmospheric Applications

Requirements defined for 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting  (44)

This tables shows all related requirements. For more operations/filtering, please consult the full list of Requirements
Note: In reading the values, goal is marked blue, breakthrough green, threshold orange
Application-dependent Technical Priority (ATP) Magenta and Relative priority of the attributes Red

Id Variable Layer App Area ATP Uncertainty Layer/s Quality Coverage Quality Stability / decade Hor Res Ver Res Obs Cyc Timeliness Coverage Conf Level Val Date Source General Comment Application Area Comment Horizontal Coverage Comment Observation Comment Performance Comment
425 Aerosol column burden TC 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 10 %
13 %
20 %
5 km
10 km
50 km
15 min
60 min
12 h
15 min
30 min
2 h
Global firm 2007-07-19 ET EGOS-3
427 Atmospheric temperature PBL 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.5 K
1 K
3 K
5 km
10 km
50 km
0.1 km
0.3 km
1 km
5 min
10 min
60 min
5 min
10 min
60 min
Global firm 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti Higher resolution is required for derivation of atmospheric stability index
428 Atmospheric temperature FT 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.5 K
1 K
2 K
5 km
20 km
200 km
0.1 km
0.5 km
2 km
15 min
30 min
60 min
5 min
10 min
30 min
Global firm 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
430 Cloud cover PBL 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 5 %
10 %
20 %
1 km
5 km
20 km
30 sec
3 min
60 min
60 sec
3 min
30 min
Global firm 2003-10-20 ET ODRRGOS
432 Cloud top temperature Cloud-top 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.5 K
0.8 K
2 K
1 km
5 km
10 km
5 min
15 min
60 min
5 min
10 min
30 min
Global firm 2013-04-09 P. Ambrosetti
433 Cloud type n/a (2D) 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.1 Classes -1
0.125 Classes -1
0.2 Classes -1
1 km
5 km
10 km
5 min
15 min
60 min
5 min
15 min
60 min
Global firm 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
438 Height of the tropopause n/a (2D) 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.1 km
0.2 km
1 km
10 km
25 km
200 km
30 min
60 min
6 h
30 min
60 min
2 h
Global firm 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
441 Ocean surface currents (vector) Sea surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.5 cm/s
0.7 cm/s
1 cm/s
10 km
15 km
50 km
6 h
12 h
6 d
6 h
12 h
4 d
Global ocean firm 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
444 Sea surface temperature Sea surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.5 K
0.8 K
2 K
5 km
10 km
50 km
3 h
6 h
24 h
3 h
6 h
24 h
Global ocean firm 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
445 Sea-ice cover Sea surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 10 %
13 %
20 %
5 km
10 km
50 km
24 h
3 d
24 d
24 h
2 d
7 d
Global ocean firm 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
448 Specific humidity FT 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 5 g kg-1
8 g kg-1
20 g kg-1
5 km
15 km
50 km
0.1 km
0.5 km
2 km
15 min
30 min
60 min
10 min
20 min
60 min
Global firm 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti Accuracy 10% in RH
449 Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) TC 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 kg.m-2
2 kg.m-2
5 kg.m-2
5 km
10 km
50 km
15 min
30 min
60 min
5 min
10 min
30 min
Global firm 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
450 Temperature of the tropopause n/a (2D) 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.5 K
0.8 K
2 K
10 km
25 km
200 km
30 min
60 min
6 h
30 min
60 min
2 h
Global firm 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
451 Wind (horizontal) FT 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 m.s-1
2 m.s-1
8 m.s-1
5 km
15 km
200 km
0.5 km
1 km
2 km
15 min
60 min
3 h
15 min
60 min
3 h
Global firm 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
452 Wind (horizontal) UTLS 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 m.s-1
2 m.s-1
5 m.s-1
10 km
25 km
100 km
1 km
2 km
5 km
15 min
60 min
6 h
10 min
30 min
2 h
Global firm 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
453 Wind (horizontal) PBL 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 m.s-1
2 m.s-1
5 m.s-1
1 km
5 km
20 km
0.2 km
0.5 km
1 km
5 min
30 min
3 h
5 min
15 min
60 min
Global firm 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
456 Wind speed (near surface) Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 m/s
1.4 m/s
3 m/s
5 km
10 km
50 km
15 min
30 min
3 h
15 min
30 min
60 min
Global ocean firm 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
457 Wind vector (near surface) Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 m/s
2 m/s
5 m/s
5 km
10 km
50 km
5 min
15 min
60 min
5 min
15 min
60 min
Global land firm 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
458 Wind vector (near surface) Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 m/s
2 m/s
5 m/s
5 km
10 km
50 km
15 min
30 min
3 h
15 min
30 min
60 min
Global ocean firm 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
646 Dominant wave direction Sea surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 10 deg.
20 deg.
30 deg.
5 km
20 km
50 km
60 min
3 h
12 h
60 min
90 min
3 h
Global ocean firm 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
647 Dominant wave period Sea surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.5 s
1 s
3 s
5 km
20 km
50 km
60 min
3 h
12 h
60 min
90 min
3 h
Global ocean firm 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
747 Total lightning stroke density TrC 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 Dimensionless
3 Dimensionless
15 Dimensionless
1 %
3 %
10 %
1 km
3 km
15 km
30 sec
5 min
15 min
30 sec
5 min
30 min
Global firm 2015-06-09 P. Ambrosetti This variable makes no distinction between Cloud to ground and Intra-clouds lightning flashes.
748 Cloud to Ground lightning density Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 Dimensionless
3 Dimensionless
15 Dimensionless
1 %/decade
3 %/decade
15 %/decade
1 km
3 km
15 km
30 sec
5 min
15 min
30 sec
5 min
15 min
Global firm 2015-06-09 P. Ambrosetti This variable considers only cloud-to-ground lightning flashes.
426 Air temperature (near surface) Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.5 K
0.7 K
2 K
1 km
5 km
20 km
10 min
30 min
60 min
10 min
30 min
60 min
Global reasonable 2013-04-15 P. Ambrosetti
431 Cloud top height n/a (2D) 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.1 km
0.3 km
1 km
1 km
5 km
15 km
5 min
15 min
60 min
5 min
10 min
30 min
Global reasonable 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
435 Fire fractional cover Land surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 5 %
8 %
20 %
1 km
10 km
50 km
15 min
3 h
24 h
15 min
3 h
24 h
Global land reasonable 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
436 Fire temperature Land surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 50 K
80 K
200 K
1 km
10 km
50 km
15 min
3 h
24 h
15 min
3 h
24 h
Global land reasonable 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
437 Height of the top of PBL n/a (2D) 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.05 km
0.1 km
0.5 km
5 km
10 km
50 km
15 min
30 min
60 min
5 min
10 min
30 min
Global reasonable 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
439 Land surface temperature Land surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.5 K
1 K
3 K
1 km
5 km
30 km
10 min
30 min
60 min
10 min
30 min
60 min
Global land reasonable 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
440 Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Land surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 5 %
10 %
20 %
1 km
5 km
40 km
12 h
24 h
7 d
12 h
24 h
7 d
Global land reasonable 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti for synoptic verification and use
442 Precipitation intensity at surface (liquid or solid) Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.1 mm/h
0.3 mm/h
1 mm/h
1 km
5 km
30 km
5 min
10 min
60 min
5 min
10 min
30 min
Global reasonable 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti Over populated area and close to rivers requirements are more strict than elsewhere.
443 Precipitation intensity at surface (solid) Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.1 mm/h
0.3 mm/h
1 mm/h
1 km
10 km
50 km
10 min
30 min
3 h
10 min
30 min
2 h
Global reasonable 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti Over populated area and along transport routes requirements are more strict than elsewhere.
446 Snow cover Land surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 10 %
13 %
20 %
5 km
10 km
50 km
60 min
6 h
24 h
60 min
2 h
6 h
Global land reasonable 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti
447 Soil moisture at surface Land surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.01 m3 /m3
0.02 m3 /m3
0.05 m3 /m3
5 km
10 km
50 km
60 min
6 h
24 h
60 min
6 h
24 h
Global land reasonable 2013-04-03 P. Ambrosetti for forest fire indices calculation
454 Wind (vertical) PBL 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 cm.s-1
2 cm.s-1
5 cm.s-1
5 km
15 km
20 km
0.2 km
0.5 km
1 km
5 min
30 min
3 h
5 min
10 min
30 min
Global reasonable 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
455 Wind speed (near surface) Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 m/s
1.4 m/s
3 m/s
1 km
5 km
20 km
5 min
15 min
60 min
5 min
15 min
60 min
Global land reasonable 2013-04-08 P. Ambrosetti
698 Wind gust Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 m.s-1 
1.7 m.s-1 
5 m.s-1 
1 km
5 km
20 km
60 sec
10 min
60 min
60 sec
10 min
60 min
Global land reasonable 2013-04-15 P. Ambrosetti Near sensitive or populated areas requirements are more strict than elsewhere
699 Snow depth Land surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.1 cm
0.5 cm
2 cm
5 km
10 km
15 km
10 min
60 min
24 h
10 min
60 min
24 h
Global land reasonable 2013-04-15 P. Ambrosetti Over populated area and along transport routes requirements are more strict than elsewhere.
700 Earth surface albedo Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 5 %
10 %
20 %
1 km
5 km
10 km
24 h
3 d
10 d
12 h
24 h
3 d
Global reasonable 2013-04-15 P. Ambrosetti necessary to compute radiance balance at the surface for snow pack evolution forecast
701 Downward short-wave irradiance at Earth surface Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 W.m-2
10 W.m-2
20 W.m-2
5 km
15 km
50 km
60 sec
10 min
60 min
60 sec
10 min
60 min
Global reasonable 2013-04-15 P. Ambrosetti Rapid observation observing cycle needed for solar energy power prediction
703 Cloud cover TrC 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 5 %
10 %
20 %
1 km
5 km
20 km
5 min
15 min
60 min
5 min
15 min
60 min
Global reasonable 2013-04-15 P. Ambrosetti
704 Specific humidity PBL 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 2 g kg-1
5 g kg-1
10 g kg-1
5 km
10 km
50 km
0.1 km
0.3 km
1 km
5 min
10 min
60 min
5 min
10 min
60 min
Global reasonable 2013-04-25 P. Ambrosetti For derivation of atmospheric stability index Accuracy 5% in RH
749 Cloud base height n/a (2D) 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 0.1 km
0.25 km
0.5 km
0.5 km
2 km
10 km
15 min
60 min
3 h
15 min
30 min
2 h
Global reasonable 2015-06-09 P. Ambrosetti
702 Downward long-wave irradiance at Earth surface Near Surface 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting 1 W.m-2
10 W.m-2
20 W.m-2
5 km
15 km
50 km
60 min
3 h
12 h
60 min
3 h
12 h
Global tentative 2013-04-15 P. Ambrosetti necessary to compute radiance balance at the surface or for bulk cloud cover estimation