WMO OSCAR | Application Area: 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting

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Application: 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting

Details

Name	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting
Description	Nowcasting, as outlined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), involves detailed forecasting of local weather, utilizing any method to predict conditions from the present to six hours ahead. It provides a comprehensive portrayal of the current weather, leveraging real-time observational data such as surface observations, satellite imagery, lightning, radar data, etc. Nowcasting by extrapolation excels in delivering high-resolution forecasts of weather phenomena for the immediate (2 hour) future. Advancements in data assimilation systems enable Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to outperform nowcast extrapolation thereafter. The use of NWP with data assimilation forms the basis of Very Short Range Forecasting (VSRF) up to 12 hours. To ensure a seamless VSRF, crucial in high-impact weather situations, advanced centers blend both NWP and nowcasting. This integration plays a vital role in issuing timely warnings and aiding decision-makers across various sectors.
Organization	World Meteorological Organization
Focal Point	Aitor Atencia Ruiz de Gopegui
Earth System Application Category	2. Atmospheric Applications

Variables measured in this Application Area

Subdomain	Variables
Basic atmospheric	Air temperature (near surface) Atmospheric temperature Height of the top of PBL Height of the tropopause Specific humidity Integrated Water Vapour (IWV) Temperature of the tropopause Wind (horizontal) Wind (vertical) Wind speed (near surface) Wind vector (near surface)
Clouds and precipitations	Accumulated precipitation Cloud base height Cloud cover Cloud top height Cloud top temperature Cloud type Precipitation intensity at surface (liquid or solid) Precipitation intensity at surface (solid) Total lightning stroke density Cloud to Ground lightning density
Aerosols and radiation	Aerosol column burden Downward short-wave irradiance at Earth surface Downward long-wave irradiance at Earth surface Earth surface albedo
Ocean	Dominant wave direction Dominant wave period Ocean surface currents (vector) Sea surface temperature
Land surface	Fire fractional cover Fire temperature Land surface temperature Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Snow cover Soil moisture at surface Wind gust Snow depth
Sea Ice	Sea-ice cover

Requirements defined for 2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting (44)

This tables shows all related requirements. For more operations/filtering, please consult the full list of Requirements
Note: In reading the values, goal is marked blue, breakthrough green, threshold orange
Application-dependent Technical Priority (ATP) Magenta and Relative priority of the attributes Red

Id	Variable	Layer	App Area	Uncertainty	Stability / decade	Hor Res	Ver Res	Obs Cyc	Timeliness	Coverage	Conf Level	Val Date	Source	General Comment
425	Aerosol column burden	TC	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	10 % 13 % 20 %		5 km 10 km 50 km		15 min 60 min 12 h	15 min 30 min 2 h	Global	firm	2007-07-19	ET EGOS-3
427	Atmospheric temperature	PBL	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.5 K 1 K 3 K		5 km 10 km 50 km	0.1 km 0.3 km 1 km	5 min 10 min 60 min	5 min 10 min 60 min	Global	firm	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti	Higher resolution is required for derivation of atmospheric stability index
428	Atmospheric temperature	FT	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.5 K 1 K 2 K		5 km 20 km 200 km	0.1 km 0.5 km 2 km	15 min 30 min 60 min	5 min 10 min 30 min	Global	firm	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
430	Cloud cover	PBL	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	5 % 10 % 20 %		1 km 5 km 20 km		30 sec 3 min 60 min	60 sec 3 min 30 min	Global	firm	2003-10-20	ET ODRRGOS
432	Cloud top temperature	Cloud-top	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.5 K 0.8 K 2 K		1 km 5 km 10 km		5 min 15 min 60 min	5 min 10 min 30 min	Global	firm	2013-04-09	P. Ambrosetti
433	Cloud type	n/a (2D)	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.1 Classes ^-1 0.125 Classes ^-1 0.2 Classes ^-1		1 km 5 km 10 km		5 min 15 min 60 min	5 min 15 min 60 min	Global	firm	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
438	Height of the tropopause	n/a (2D)	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.1 km 0.2 km 1 km		10 km 25 km 200 km		30 min 60 min 6 h	30 min 60 min 2 h	Global	firm	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
441	Ocean surface currents (vector)	Sea surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.5 cm/s 0.7 cm/s 1 cm/s		10 km 15 km 50 km		6 h 12 h 6 d	6 h 12 h 4 d	Global ocean	firm	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
444	Sea surface temperature	Sea surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.5 K 0.8 K 2 K		5 km 10 km 50 km		3 h 6 h 24 h	3 h 6 h 24 h	Global ocean	firm	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
445	Sea-ice cover	Sea surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	10 % 13 % 20 %		5 km 10 km 50 km		24 h 3 d 24 d	24 h 2 d 7 d	Global ocean	firm	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
448	Specific humidity	FT	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	5 g kg^-1 8 g kg^-1 20 g kg^-1		5 km 15 km 50 km	0.1 km 0.5 km 2 km	15 min 30 min 60 min	10 min 20 min 60 min	Global	firm	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti	Accuracy 10% in RH
449	Integrated Water Vapour (IWV)	TC	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 kg.m^-2 2 kg.m^-2 5 kg.m^-2		5 km 10 km 50 km		15 min 30 min 60 min	5 min 10 min 30 min	Global	firm	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
450	Temperature of the tropopause	n/a (2D)	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.5 K 0.8 K 2 K		10 km 25 km 200 km		30 min 60 min 6 h	30 min 60 min 2 h	Global	firm	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
451	Wind (horizontal)	FT	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 m.s^-1 2 m.s^-1 8 m.s^-1		5 km 15 km 200 km	0.5 km 1 km 2 km	15 min 60 min 3 h	15 min 60 min 3 h	Global	firm	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
452	Wind (horizontal)	UTLS	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 m.s^-1 2 m.s^-1 5 m.s^-1		10 km 25 km 100 km	1 km 2 km 5 km	15 min 60 min 6 h	10 min 30 min 2 h	Global	firm	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
453	Wind (horizontal)	PBL	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 m.s^-1 2 m.s^-1 5 m.s^-1		1 km 5 km 20 km	0.2 km 0.5 km 1 km	5 min 30 min 3 h	5 min 15 min 60 min	Global	firm	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
456	Wind speed (near surface)	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 m/s 1.4 m/s 3 m/s		5 km 10 km 50 km		15 min 30 min 3 h	15 min 30 min 60 min	Global ocean	firm	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
457	Wind vector (near surface)	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 m/s 2 m/s 5 m/s		5 km 10 km 50 km		5 min 15 min 60 min	5 min 15 min 60 min	Global land	firm	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
458	Wind vector (near surface)	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 m/s 2 m/s 5 m/s		5 km 10 km 50 km		15 min 30 min 3 h	15 min 30 min 60 min	Global ocean	firm	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
646	Dominant wave direction	Sea surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	10 deg. 20 deg. 30 deg.		5 km 20 km 50 km		60 min 3 h 12 h	60 min 90 min 3 h	Global ocean	firm	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
647	Dominant wave period	Sea surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.5 s 1 s 3 s		5 km 20 km 50 km		60 min 3 h 12 h	60 min 90 min 3 h	Global ocean	firm	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
747	Total lightning stroke density	TrC	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 Dimensionless 3 Dimensionless 15 Dimensionless	1 % 3 % 10 %	1 km 3 km 15 km		30 sec 5 min 15 min	30 sec 5 min 30 min	Global	firm	2015-06-09	P. Ambrosetti	This variable makes no distinction between Cloud to ground and Intra-clouds lightning flashes.
748	Cloud to Ground lightning density	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 Dimensionless 3 Dimensionless 15 Dimensionless	1 %/decade 3 %/decade 15 %/decade	1 km 3 km 15 km		30 sec 5 min 15 min	30 sec 5 min 15 min	Global	firm	2015-06-09	P. Ambrosetti	This variable considers only cloud-to-ground lightning flashes.
426	Air temperature (near surface)	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.5 K 0.7 K 2 K		1 km 5 km 20 km		10 min 30 min 60 min	10 min 30 min 60 min	Global	reasonable	2013-04-15	P. Ambrosetti
431	Cloud top height	n/a (2D)	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.1 km 0.3 km 1 km		1 km 5 km 15 km		5 min 15 min 60 min	5 min 10 min 30 min	Global	reasonable	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
435	Fire fractional cover	Land surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	5 % 8 % 20 %		1 km 10 km 50 km		15 min 3 h 24 h	15 min 3 h 24 h	Global land	reasonable	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
436	Fire temperature	Land surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	50 K 80 K 200 K		1 km 10 km 50 km		15 min 3 h 24 h	15 min 3 h 24 h	Global land	reasonable	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
437	Height of the top of PBL	n/a (2D)	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.05 km 0.1 km 0.5 km		5 km 10 km 50 km		15 min 30 min 60 min	5 min 10 min 30 min	Global	reasonable	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
439	Land surface temperature	Land surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.5 K 1 K 3 K		1 km 5 km 30 km		10 min 30 min 60 min	10 min 30 min 60 min	Global land	reasonable	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
440	Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)	Land surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	5 % 10 % 20 %		1 km 5 km 40 km		12 h 24 h 7 d	12 h 24 h 7 d	Global land	reasonable	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti	for synoptic verification and use
442	Precipitation intensity at surface (liquid or solid)	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.1 mm/h 0.3 mm/h 1 mm/h		1 km 5 km 30 km		5 min 10 min 60 min	5 min 10 min 30 min	Global	reasonable	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti	Over populated area and close to rivers requirements are more strict than elsewhere.
443	Precipitation intensity at surface (solid)	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.1 mm/h 0.3 mm/h 1 mm/h		1 km 10 km 50 km		10 min 30 min 3 h	10 min 30 min 2 h	Global	reasonable	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti	Over populated area and along transport routes requirements are more strict than elsewhere.
446	Snow cover	Land surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	10 % 13 % 20 %		5 km 10 km 50 km		60 min 6 h 24 h	60 min 2 h 6 h	Global land	reasonable	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti
447	Soil moisture at surface	Land surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.01 m³ /m³ 0.02 m³ /m³ 0.05 m³ /m³		5 km 10 km 50 km		60 min 6 h 24 h	60 min 6 h 24 h	Global land	reasonable	2013-04-03	P. Ambrosetti	for forest fire indices calculation
454	Wind (vertical)	PBL	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 cm.s^-1 2 cm.s^-1 5 cm.s^-1		5 km 15 km 20 km	0.2 km 0.5 km 1 km	5 min 30 min 3 h	5 min 10 min 30 min	Global	reasonable	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
455	Wind speed (near surface)	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 m/s 1.4 m/s 3 m/s		1 km 5 km 20 km		5 min 15 min 60 min	5 min 15 min 60 min	Global land	reasonable	2013-04-08	P. Ambrosetti
698	Wind gust	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 m.s^-1 1.7 m.s^-1 5 m.s^-1		1 km 5 km 20 km		60 sec 10 min 60 min	60 sec 10 min 60 min	Global land	reasonable	2013-04-15	P. Ambrosetti	Near sensitive or populated areas requirements are more strict than elsewhere
699	Snow depth	Land surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.1 cm 0.5 cm 2 cm		5 km 10 km 15 km		10 min 60 min 24 h	10 min 60 min 24 h	Global land	reasonable	2013-04-15	P. Ambrosetti	Over populated area and along transport routes requirements are more strict than elsewhere.
700	Earth surface albedo	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	5 % 10 % 20 %		1 km 5 km 10 km		24 h 3 d 10 d	12 h 24 h 3 d	Global	reasonable	2013-04-15	P. Ambrosetti	necessary to compute radiance balance at the surface for snow pack evolution forecast
701	Downward short-wave irradiance at Earth surface	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 W.m^-2 10 W.m^-2 20 W.m^-2		5 km 15 km 50 km		60 sec 10 min 60 min	60 sec 10 min 60 min	Global	reasonable	2013-04-15	P. Ambrosetti	Rapid observation observing cycle needed for solar energy power prediction
703	Cloud cover	TrC	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	5 % 10 % 20 %		1 km 5 km 20 km		5 min 15 min 60 min	5 min 15 min 60 min	Global	reasonable	2013-04-15	P. Ambrosetti
704	Specific humidity	PBL	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	2 g kg^-1 5 g kg^-1 10 g kg^-1		5 km 10 km 50 km	0.1 km 0.3 km 1 km	5 min 10 min 60 min	5 min 10 min 60 min	Global	reasonable	2013-04-25	P. Ambrosetti	For derivation of atmospheric stability index Accuracy 5% in RH
749	Cloud base height	n/a (2D)	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	0.1 km 0.25 km 0.5 km		0.5 km 2 km 10 km		15 min 60 min 3 h	15 min 30 min 2 h	Global	reasonable	2015-06-09	P. Ambrosetti
702	Downward long-wave irradiance at Earth surface	Near Surface	2.3 Nowcasting / Very Short-Range Forecasting	1 W.m^-2 10 W.m^-2 20 W.m^-2		5 km 15 km 50 km		60 min 3 h 12 h	60 min 3 h 12 h	Global	tentative	2013-04-15	P. Ambrosetti	necessary to compute radiance balance at the surface or for bulk cloud cover estimation